We will use again our top-down trading analysis to do a Gold top-down trading technical analysis. The start is from a monthly chart. We can see that the instrument has pulled back from the 2011 top in so-called three waves so far. We could be in a 4 wave now after the bounce off the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement of the 2001-2011 uptrend. This 4 wave could end up targeting the same 1070 level which will also intersect with the 200 SMA (BLACK LINE). This could happen only in the case of a clear break below the 1285 level on a lower time-frame. This downside scenario will be invalidated only in the case of a break above the 1425 level, which will make this a regular A-B-C pullback of the previous 2001-2011 uptrend
On a weekly chart, we can clearly see the triangle wedge which is keeping this instrument in consolidation. The key levels to watch, in the case of the downside break below the 1285 level, are 1270 and 1245.
On a Daily chart, a closer look indicates a possible short trade entry in the case of the daily close below the 1285 level. Bounce off this level could lead to a consolidation swing up to 1320 level again and leave our long-term 1070 target scenario on hold.
Since the instrument is in a downtrend, as long as it is below the 1425 level, look for the short trade entries and especially in the case of a daily close below the 1285 level. Bounces should be used only for the short-term long trade entries targeting 20-50$ of profit.
Happy trading! (click on the chart to enlarge it)
The broker of our choice! Open the account and get the discount for our services!
Managed accounts services!
Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to make position Risk Free. We are publishing 5-10 trade alerts per week via real-time Private twitter feed!