$SPX top-down trading analysis

SPX is making a case for a triple top 

In this article, we are looking at the top-down S&P500 analysis.
On the monthly SPX  chart, we can see that the instrument is reaching an extreme top 2900 level, again. This time after a deeper retrace in 2350-2400 zone. The monthly chart is revealing an extreme negative divergence by the many oscillators.

SPX monthly chart

 

 

We have used the combination of the top-down trading analysis and the  Price action trading analysis to get to a trading entry stop loss levels and targets indicated below.
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On the Weekly chart, SPX visibly bounced off the long-term uptrend line and 200 SMA 2350 level. This level has led to an extreme retrace, of almost 100% just shy of the record high that was set during Aug-Sep 2018. After this rise, a reversal from here would lead to a revisit of a first strong upside support 2830 level, but a piece of evidence that the top is in place would be a weekly close below the 2760 level.

SPX weekly trading analysis

 

 

The most significant indicator that the top is forming, with a possibility for a triple top, is a daily chart and a terminal wedge (rising wedge, usually bearish). From here it is a good short trade risk to reward entry with the stop loss above 2920 targeting 2830 at least and upon a break of this level releasing a trade with the breakeven stop loss.

SPX trading signal

SPX weekly trading projection

Happy trading! (click on the chart to enlarge it)
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