The monthly chart shows a strong bullish channel breakout after the bounce from 126. Bears need to see a break below 126 for the short trades to be triggered and for the put options buying. It is not advisable to trade against this strong long-term uptrend at this point and you should use the chance to go long or to buy call options.
The Weekly AMZN chart reveals a strong uptrend channel support of 130. This is the first strong line of defense for the existing uptrend supported by a rising uptrend line and a horizontal support line and also it is a breakout point. This zone should hold for the extension higher. A break below 130 followed by a breakout below 126 would lead to a complete downside reversal and a continuation from here will lead higher to test 150. Long trade entries and call options buying are recommended here for swing trading as the risk to reward is good and in favor of buyers.
As the famous trader says…
“In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
How to trade this?
It is a fact that a strong upside support for Q3 is 133 and we have seen a break above it so far but we need a confirmed extension. If we get a confirmed extension higher next week we could see a test of 154. A break below 130 would mean a complete turnaround. Near-term, long-trade entries have a higher probability of success. There is a possibility of long trade entry and short trade here. We can open the long trade here with a bit of risk and stop the loss below 126 and the short trade if we get stopped from the long trade. Also, call option buying is preferred here.