As expected, the Dollar Index went lower. But now there are several different possibilities.
RED: this is my main count, which suggests more downside towards 94.80/30 as long as we stay below 95.99.
BLUE: this count suggests that wave Z might be a double zigzag or a flat. Valid below 96.68
GREEN: Suggests that wave Z is a truncation, i.e it won’t go beyond the end of wave Y (95.03). In this case, a bottom is already in place.
Trading strategy DXY
SHORT TERM: if you are still short from last week, move stops to break even. Target still 94.80/30 area.
LONG TERM: A break above 96.68 will confirm that a bottom is in place.
Long at 96.68 against 93.79. Target 100.
Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD)
In last weeks analysis, I outlined the 1.1268 level as the line in the sand for bulls. We held above that level and have moved higher, as expected. But now, just like the DXY, there several different possibilities.But as long as we stay above 1.1290, there is room to extend higher towards 1.1620.
There is a possibility that the EUR/USD is within a triangle, but it’s too early to tell.
Trading strategy EUR/USD
SHORT TERM: if you went long last week against 1.1268 as suggested, move stops to 1.1290. Target 1.1590 and 1.1620.
LONG TERM: Sell at 1.1290 against swing high OR Sell near 1.1600 against 1.1815.
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD)
It looks like the pound has completed wave 3 against the dollar, and remains bullish above wave 1 high (1.2931) for a fifth wave higher that could complete wave X.
In this count wave 1 looks extended and is longer than wave 3, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave (Elliott Wave rule). So this means that the maximal target for wave 5 is 1.3440.
Trading strategy GBP/USD
Remain long against 1.2931 (break even) for a move towards 1.33-34 (+370-470 pips)
US Dollar Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
In last weeks analysis, I recommended going short (at the market, approximately 109.60) against 110.0 and target area 108.6 to 107.3.
As expected, we went lower and have now hit the first target, but it looks likely that we will see more downside below 108 and then a move towards the upside.
Trading strategy USD/JPY
SHORT TERM: Move stops to 109.4 (to lock in +20 pips), TP1: 108.0 (+160 pips) TP2: 107.40 (+220 pips)
LONG TERM: Look for buying opportunities between 108 and 107.
Gold Spot US Dollar (XAU/USD)
In last weeks analysis, I recommended buying Gold (at approximately 1284) against 1276 and target 1310-30 area. We have now hit two of our three targets and could go higher and hit our final target at 1330.
Trading strategy XAU/USD
SHORT TERM: If you are still long move stops to 1304.
New Zealand Dollar US Dollar
In last weeks analysis, I recommended to remain long and move stops to 0.6707. We held that level and hit the first target at 0.6920. Next target is 0.6270/80
Trading strategy NZD/USD
SHORT TERM: Move stops to 0.6824 (to lock in +95 pips). Next target 0.6970 (+240 pips)
Canadian Dollar US Dollar
In January 18 analysis I recommended going short below 1.3179 against 1.3670. This trade setup is still valid, but there is a distinct possibility that we might do a flat correction that will drag on for quite a bit.
Trading strategy USD/CAD:
SHORT TERM: stand aside for now.
WEST TEXAS OIL (US OIL, CRUDE OIL) NEW!
For the past month, US Oil has been in an uptrend. And now it looks like we have completed five waves up and could see a correction down to 50-47 area.
Trading strategy US Oil
SHORT TERM: Short at market (53.70) against 55.175. TP1: 50.25, TP2: 48.70
LONG TERM: Look for long setup in 50-47 area against December low (42.23)
TraderWgun has over 4 years of experience with Elliott Wave Principle, 6 years trading part-time. Twitter handle @atliveanner
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