The monthly chart shows that NVDA is reaching a critical resistance of 441. This is a confluence of upside resistance after nine months of the upside without a significant pullback and a 100% Fibonacci extension. A break above this level exposes the 550 which is also a 138.2% extension from December 2018 low
The Weekly NVDA chart reveals possible fifth waves from the bottom near the finish. This is also an upside wedge resistance of a long-term rising wedge with a declining volume. A break below 347 is required to confirm that the five upside waves are finished and that we are close to a complete reversal. A break above 450 is exposing a test of 500. A break above 500 will be a strong bullish signal.
As the famous trader says…
” Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
John Maynard Keynes
How to trade this?
It is a fact that a strong upside resistance for Q3 is 450. As long as this resistance is holding in the coming weeks we will probably see a reversal lower to test at least 347.50. A break below this level would mean a complete reversal and a break below the rising wedge line. Near-term long-trade entries have a low probability of success, and now short trades have a greater risk to reward and a higher probability of success. You can place a short trade entry during the NY session on Monday or buy put options. The target is 357, the risk to reward is above and stops should be above 450.