When you are a FOREX trader you should be aware of the stock market positioning as well. A lot of the assets on the FOREX markets, including the particular currency pairs are influenced by the stock market moves. When the stock market is falling the safe heaven currency pairs such as the USD, CHF, JPY tends to strengthen. This is an important fact to know to be applied in your trading. And what is the best risk benchmark in the world? S&P500 Index of course.
S&P500 is at its key moment as it can be revealed by the top down trading technical analysis we are always applying in the search for the high probability trading entries. Looking at the monthly chart, after the Q1 of the 2018 expiration, we can see that the pair is pulling back from the 2876 level which is the highest 2008-2018 swing up level.
For this pullback to be fully materialized, we need to see a break below the 34 SMA weekly (green line) and 200 SMA daily (blue line) 2580 level shown on the charts below. In this case, we could see a pullback into the monthly Fibonacci reversal 2000-2300 zone.
That would lead the a liquidition of the long poistion in some JPY pairs AUDJPY, NZDJPY, USDJPY for start. This means that the FOREX traders need to look for the selling opportunities in this pairs. Looking at the USDJPY monthly chart below it is clear that the pair has broken below the long-term rising trend line and the upside Pitchfork channel but is still holding the 200 SMA (blue line) 105.619 level.
The selling of the USDJPY could start here at the Pitchfork median line rejection 107 level with the narrow stop loss just above the 107 level. The conservative traders should wait for a clear daily close below the indicated long-term 105.619 level, which could also ben the case of the S&P500 break below 2580 level.
Traders should monitor the price action at the indicated levels closely in the next few days because we could see a large market moves and you should be prepared for it and also take advantage of it.
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Our Q1 2018 trade alerts statistics!
Happy trading! (click on the chart to enlarge it)
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