The latest news suggests that geopolitical tensions, such as those involving Russia and Ukraine, could affect gold prices. Additionally, the hawkish tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has led to some sell-the-news action in the gold market.
Analysts are watching the gold market closely due to its range-bound behavior following a significant pullback from record highs in October. There’s a cautious outlook with some investors expecting a deeper correction before re-entering the market.
XAUUSD has recently been rejected from the 2755 high and is pulling back. This level represents a possible fifth short-term Elliott upside wave top and a third long-term ElliottWave top; a confirmed break below 2600 will confirm that. Only a break above 2755 would lead to an upside continuation and invalidate the downside reversal. Learn to Trade CFDs profitably.
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XAUUSD’s weekly chart below reveals a strong breakout below an upside channel support of 2600. At this point, sell positions have a greater probability of success than buying positions. If we get a confirmed break above 2755 we should see an extension of the long-term fifth wave higher however RSI negative divergence triggered so I am expecting a strong reversal downside continuation from here.
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As the famous trader says…
“Every trader has strengths and weakness. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long”
Michael Marcus
How to trade this?
It is a fact that a strong upside resistance for Q1 2025 is 2755 and If we get a confirmation of a breakout and a sustained extension above this level we could see still a strong upside continuation higher in the extended fifth long-term upside Elliott Wave. You can take the short trade here with a stop loss above 2670. You can trade with put options as well. For inquiries about account management or copy trading please write to [email protected] or contact me on WhatsApp or Live chat.
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